<p>Against a backdrop of rising global surface temperature, the stability of the Indian monsoon rainfall over the past century has been a puzzle. By using a daily rainfall data set, we show (i) significant rising trends in the frequency and the magnitude of extreme rain events and (ii) a significant decreasing trend in the frequency of moderate events over central India during the monsoon seasons from 1951 to 2000. The seasonal mean rainfall does not show a significant trend, because the contribution from increasing heavy events is offset by decreasing moderate events. A substantial increase in hazards related to heavy rain is expected over central India in the future.</p>
B. N. Goswami, Venugopal, V., Sengupta, D., Dr. Madhusoodanan M.S., and Xavier, P. K., “Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment”, Science, vol. 314, pp. 1442–1445, 2006.