Publication Type:

Journal Article

Source:

Renewable Energy, Elsevier Ltd, Volume 95, p.303-313 (2016)

URL:

https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84975270853&doi=10.1016%2fj.renene.2016.03.076&partnerID=40&md5=caafe322e5a66515bf91ee8b0428ea3e

Keywords:

Iberian marketm, Investment modeling, Regulation revision, Regulation uncertainty; Renewable energy business risk; Renewable energy project; Risk modeling

Abstract:

Regulatory risk is commonly accepted as one of the most important risks in the energy business, particularly renewable energy. With the recent changes (in June 2014) in the Spanish regulatory framework, investors' returns might be significantly affected. Further, as the Spanish and the Portuguese electricity systems are integrated, a change in the regulatory framework of Spain might also affect renewable energy policies and investment strategies in Portugal. This study is a projection of business risk under the assumption that the Portuguese government may adopt similar regulatory changes. Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the data under different scenarios. Applying Net Present Value and Real Options approaches, a 50 MW wind power project is evaluated. This study has considered the delay option to study five regulatory scenarios. A higher value for the delay option suggests that a high financial loss is expected if new wind power projects of similar capacity are implemented under the new regulatory framework

Cite this Research Publication

S. G. S., Soares, I., and Ferreira, P., “Modeling business risk: The effect of regulatory revision on renewable energy investment - The Iberian case”, Renewable Energy, vol. 95, pp. 303-313, 2016.

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