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Statistical Load Forecasting in Power Systems: A Comparative Study of SARIMA and Prophet Models

Publication Type : Conference Paper

Publisher : IEEE

Source : 2025 First International Conference on Advances in Computer Science, Electrical, Electronics, and Communication Technologies (CE2CT)

Url : https://doi.org/10.1109/ce2ct64011.2025.10941664

Campus : Coimbatore

School : School of Artificial Intelligence

Year : 2025

Abstract : Load forecasting is essential for effective energy management and planning in power systems. This study compares the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Prophet models for predicting hourly electricity consumption data from PJM Interconnection LLC. The primary objective is to identify the best-performing model between the two. The results reveal key insights into the strengths and weaknesses of each model, providing valuable guidance for their application in various load-prediction scenarios. The findings aim to improve the accuracy and reliability of statistical forecasting methods in energy management.

Cite this Research Publication : Naren Sundar L, Sreeja Gurivisetty, Rahul Satheesh, Statistical Load Forecasting in Power Systems: A Comparative Study of SARIMA and Prophet Models, 2025 First International Conference on Advances in Computer Science, Electrical, Electronics, and Communication Technologies (CE2CT), IEEE, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1109/ce2ct64011.2025.10941664

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