Publication

Abstract : India is a prominent global producer of rice, contributing to about 10% of its national economy. However, the changing climatic conditions caused by global warming could pose challenges to rice cultivation. The increased temperatures associated with climate change can lead to fluctuations in pest pressures, particularly affecting agricultural productivity. Among these pests, the rice thrip (Stenchaetothrips biformis) stands out as a particularly formidable threat to rice crops, often resulting in significant yield losses and economic repercussions. The alterations in climate can impact the developmental rates and population dynamics of the rice thrip, thereby warranting a need for monitoring its spread based on climatic factors to curtail crop yield losses. To address these concerns, the present study aimed to quantify the temperature shifts and consequent population trends of the rice thrip in India. This investigation utilized projections from the global climate models, HadGEM3-GC31 and MPI-ESMI-2 under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for the year 2050. The application of the MaxEnt species distribution model yielded insights into the potential geographic distribution of the rice thrip, indicating heightened prevalence in southern and north-eastern regions of India by the year 2050. The model predicted that a total of 265 districts could experience significant rice thrip infestations (as indicated by a model-predicted probability exceeding 0.8) under the SSP1-2.6 scenario. Meanwhile, the projections for SSP3-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 suggested that 330 and 313 districts, respectively, could face similar challenges. Considering these predictions, understanding the dynamic population dynamics of the rice thrip under the context of climate change becomes imperative. Such insights can serve as a foundation for devising integrated pest management strategies, thereby promoting sustainable food production, and mitigating associated risks.