Publication

Abstract :

Malaria is a deadly disease that can take a person's life if not predicted or cured correctly. Numerous factors like temperature, humidity, precipitation, etc., impact India's increasing cases of malaria diseases. This research presents an advanced machine learning regression technique recently developed to anticipate the prevalence of malaria in Tripura using a real-world data. The proposed structure uses nine different regression methods, such as multilayer perceptron (MLP), random forest, support vector regressor, gradient boosting regressor, Bayesian ridge, kernel ridge, extreme gradient boost regressor (XGB), light gradient boosting machine (LGBM regressor and linear regression, to predict malaria using the most affecting factors of malaria diseases, namely temperature, humidity, precipitation, month, and years as input. Furthermore, to opt out the best suited technology for malaria cases prediction, the range of value method (ROVM)–multi-criteria decision methods (MCDM) technique has been applied, considering various statistical measurements as criteria. Ultimately, a comparison of various MCDM techniques reveals that MLP, XGB, and RF emerge as the top three choices. MLP regression, with root-mean-square error (RMSE) value of 0.03357, yields the lowest RMSE value, and the coefficient of determination (R²) is 0.97616, yielding the maximum among other regressions. To effectively battle the illness in Tripura, it could be useful for continuing intervention tactics by governmental, profit and nonprofit organizations.