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Techno-Economic analysis of spot price volatility management in energy market incorporating Artificial neural network

Publication Type : Journal Article

Publisher : Elsevier BV

Source : Expert Systems with Applications

Url : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2025.128445

Keywords : Economic scheduling, Spot price, Microgrid, Price estimation, Neural network, Double auction, Congestion fee

Campus : Coimbatore

School : School of Engineering

Department : Electrical and Electronics

Year : 2025

Abstract : Recently, the emergence of distributed energy resources in the consumer premises has given rise to microgrids. It has become crucial to consider the impact of microgrids on the operation of existing power systems. Additionally, the reforms in the electricity market also play a major role in the optimal generation and scheduling of electrical energy in existing systems to avoid power scarcity and power surplus. Hence, in the proposed research, the electricity market with spot pricing is analyzed through different scenarios, with the microgrid integrated into the existing modified IEEE 5 bus system. The first step of the proposed work considers the price estimation using neural networks-based algorithms such as Levenberg-Marquardt, Bayesian Regularization, Scaled Conjugate Gradient, machine learning technique namely Random Forest Regressor (RFR), and deep learning technique namely Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), and Ensemble (AdaBoost + Levenberg-Marquardt) technique to obtain the estimated price with minimal error. The second step of the proposed work involves the economic dispatch of five generating units to maximize revenue using both the estimated and actual tariffs. The third step of the proposed work addresses the economic scheduling of power flow between the generators and load-serving entities for different scenarios, such as with/ without power transfer limits and with network and congestion fees. The simulation results of the scenarios show that following the proposed optimal bidding strategy with congestion fees effectively addresses price volatility issues in spot pricing, achieving less than a 1 % deviation between the estimated and actual spot prices with improved profit maximization in the power market.

Cite this Research Publication : Dharmaraj Kanakadhurga, K.R.M. Vijaya Chandrakala, Arunachalam Sundaram, Techno-Economic analysis of spot price volatility management in energy market incorporating Artificial neural network, Expert Systems with Applications, Elsevier BV, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2025.128445

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