Publication

Abstract : Farmer-producer organizations (FPOs) are critical to sustainable agriculture practices. However, sustainable agriculture targets envisioned by FPOs have been met by climate change (CC) threats. Yet, few studies have utilized CC data to inform resilience options, such as climate risk insurance. Rainfall and temperature data (historical from 2001-2020 and projected from 2041-2060) were utilized to assess climate change (CC) in Chhattisgarh. CC data were sourced from the WorldClim website and downscaled from WorldClim v2.1 as the baseline climate. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 were utilized to analyze current and future CC scenarios. Findings revealed that all parts of Chhattisgarh are vulnerable to CC. CC vulnerabilities will depend on the seasonal variability of rainfall and temperature. Historically, more rainfall has been received during monsoon periods. There is a relative increase in rainfall across all seasons during the 2001-2020 period. Under SSPs 2-4.5, the monsoon seasonal rainfall increased by a maximum of 286.0 mm; under SSPs 5-8.5, it increased by 351.0 mm. A change in summer rainfall of 5-7 mm is observed for medium and extreme emission scenarios. Future scenarios reveal a projected increase in seasonal rainfall. Temperatures are increasing across seasons and over time. The highest increase in average temperatures is observed under the SSPs 5-8.5 scenario. The SSPs 2-4.5 scenario indicated temperature variability, albeit with a lower increase in most emission case scenarios. Average minimum monsoon temperatures of 2.7°C and 3.1°C for SSPs 2-4.5 and SSPs 5-8.5 are observed. Summer temperature will increase by over 3°C for the SSPs 2-4.5 and 2.4°C for SSPs 5-8.5. Temperatures are projected to increase with an average above 2°C for all seasons. Rainfall risk vulnerability is highest in north-western Chhattisgarh (351 mm more than the baseline). Farmers/farming risk management measures are needed as the CC threat increases. Instead of using conventional farmer subsidy mechanisms, which mostly favour large-scale farmers, FPOs could transition to CC-agricultural risk insurance mechanisms. In this case, FPO support and policies could be linked to where there are CC vulnerabilities, which crops and farmers could be insured. Additionally, FPOs could develop CC-insurance toolkits that can use evidence-based data to map the type of vulnerability, the vulnerability of drivers, and their ramifications. Promoting continuous agricultural research, CC-induced insurance, stakeholder engagement, and monitoring will be vital for enhancing farmers' adaptation and resilience to climate change.