Publication

Abstract :

Agriculture is fundamental to rural livelihoods but faces increasing threats from irregular rainfall, water scarcity, and unsustainable land use. Therefore, this study analyzes the temporal dynamics of land use/land cover (LULC) change and rainfall variability in Dewgain Village, India, and assesses future rainfall scenarios to evaluate potential rainfall and drought risks and their implications for agricultural resilience. Multi-temporal Sentinel-2 imagery (2017–2024) was processed and classified using Google Earth Engine, and the derived LULC maps were analyzed in a GIS environment to quantify area changes and identify LULC transitions. Rainfall trend analysis from 1981 to 2024 was conducted to assess long-term rainfall variability and trends in the study area using the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI), the Mann–Kendall test, and Sen’s slope estimator. The Mann–Kendall test indicates a statistically significant upward trend in annual rainfall (P = 0.0184, τ = 0.248). RAI analysis further reveals considerable interannual variability (R² = 0.185, p = 0.00359), with seven dry years recorded during the study period. Despite this overall increase, winter rainfall shows a declining tendency, suggesting increasing drought stress and potentially higher irrigation requirements. Moreover, this study found that, according to LULC change analysis, cropland is expanding, while forest land, rangeland, and water bodies in the area are declining; this may alter local hydrological conditions and reduce the landscape’s capacity to retain water. Combining LULC change with strong monsoon rainfall variability and weak rainfall during other seasons, these changes may increase rainfall above the recommended conditions during the monsoon and water stress in other seasons, ultimately affecting farming activities and agricultural productivity. Future projections indicate an increase in extreme rainfall events, heightening the likelihood of flood risks in low-lying agricultural zones. The integration of LULC and rainfall dynamics provides actionable insights for local climate adaptation strategies, emphasizing agroforestry, water-efficient irrigation, and participatory farm planning to boost the resilience of agriculture to extreme climate and improve food systems.