Publication

Abstract : Dynamic models are more realistic and general as they accommodate stationary and non-stationary variables. The prediction of different rainfall states is highly dynamic in nature, with many inherent signals and complexity. The Dynamic Chow-Lin method, which is a time dependent system, is applied here to model daily rainfall scenarios in the summer months of monsoon. The method originates in econometrics, and no attempt has been made to predict the daily rainfall using the technique. Daily monsoon rainfall datasets of India for the monsoon months (June-September) from 1991 to 2021 were collected. Results show a promising association between prediction and observation with a relatively small mean absolute error.