Publication

Abstract : India is a global leader in milk production, contributing 24.27% of the world’s total output. Despite this, agriculture's Gross Value Added (GVA) accounts for about 17% of India's total, with the livestock sector contributing roughly 4%. Notably, the livestock sector experienced significant growth of 17.07% from 2009 to 2019. India’s role in dairy exports is modest, ranked 219th with a 0.27% share, but shows diversification in destinations like Turkey, UAE, Egypt, Bangladesh, and Bhutan. This study utilizes secondary data from key Indian dairy bodies such as NDDB, APEDA, and DGCIS from 2009-10 to 2018-19, employing analytical tools like CAGR, Hirschman market concentration index, Export instability index, and Markov-chain models. The objective is to analyze the market performance of Indian dairy products by evaluating growth, market concentration, and export instability and to examine the direction of India's dairy product exports. The results shows that milk production in India registered a CAGR of 5.08%, with per capita availability increasing by 3.81%. Market concentration fluctuated during the study period, with HMCI ranging between 27 and 52. India's dairy exports grew at 6.49% in quantity and 12.53% in value. Export instability was highest in Egypt (1018.31%) and lowest in the UAE (44.01%). Egypt emerged as the most stable importer with a retention probability of 12.2%, followed by the UAE, Bangladesh, Turkey, and Bhutan.